Suite 4, Bishop Bateman Court,

5-7 New Park Street, 

Cambridge, CB5 8AT, England 

Phone: +44 (0) 1223 316098

David Simmonds Consultancy Ltd

112 George Street, 

Edinburgh, EH2 4LH,

Scotland

Phone: +44 (0) 7458 302263

David Simmonds Consultancy Ltd

DSC France,

100 Rue d’Aboukir,

75002 Paris, France 

DSC France SAS

David Simmonds Consultancy Limited is registered in England and Wales, company registration 04860878. The registered office is 10 Jesus Lane, Cambridge CB5 8BA

Legal notices and policy statements

APPLICATION OF FORECASTING MODELS

2015 to date

Crossrail 2

In late 2016/early 2017, DSC (as part of a consortium of sub-consultants) helped with the production of the strategic outline business case (SOBC) for Crossrail 2. The proposed scheme is a new railway linking the national rail networks in Surrey and Hertfordshire via an underground tunnel through London. The new railway would stop at key locations throughout the city and improve access to and from London across the wider South East. DSC has developed and operated a LUTI model of London and the Greater South East for TfL since 2008 and the most recent version of it was used for this Crossrail 2 appraisal. Several key improvements to the model included the expansion of the study area to all of Great Britain, implementation of the variable productivity model and updates to the underlying scenarios and planning inputs. For such a transformational scheme as Crossrail 2, both in terms of transport investment and planning policy, the updated model was fully capable of understanding both where demographic and economic growth may be displaced from as well as net additional employment as a result of VPM type impacts. WebTAG compliant static and dynamic wider economic impacts were also estimated to help understand the impacts of the scheme, as well as testing a number potential route variations. The results themselves provide a useful insight to the importance of correctly aligning transport investment with planning policy as well as the use of models like LonLUTI to solve future forecasted capacity constraints solved by schemes with potentially very long delivery timescales.

Silvertown Tunnel

The issue of increasing lower Thames river crossing capacity has been examined using all the iterations of the LonLUTI model since it was first developed for TfL in 2008. The most recent work, completed in 2016, used a more detailed highway assignment model (instead of LonLUTI’s existing transport model, LTS) to capture more detail of the impacts on the road network resulting from the construction of a new road tunnel linking Greenwich and Newham, in parallel to the existing Blackwall Crossing. The existing interfaces between land-use and transport models were updated to allow information to be passed to/from each other and the scheme was tested in the usual way of producing generalised costs of travel with and without the scheme, which are subsequently read by the land-use model. The detailed transport modelling required approximately a week per forecast year to complete, meaning a full forecast to 2051 took over a month, a possible record for DELTA type LUTI models. Of additional interest was the impact the increased traffic volumes had on population growth in the tunnel’s feeder corridors, nicely illustrating the sort of spatial trade-offs that DELTA applications are able to represent by incorporating supplementary transport modelling outputs beyond the usual generalised cost outputs.

Grand Paris Express

Grand Paris Express (GPE) is a group of new transit lines being built in the suburb areas of Paris. There are four new lines and two extensions of existing lines. They will open in stages through to 2030. GPE is currently the largest urban project in Europe with 200km of additional fully-automatic lines and 68 new stations. All new lines will be connected to the existing network, and will allow people to commute more easily in the suburbs of Paris without having to go through the capital. GPE will serve major activity hubs such as airports, business centres, research centres and universities, and metropolitan territories that today are difficult to reach. DSC was commissioned by the Société du Grand Paris to estimate the land-use and economic impacts of GPE on the other regions of France. The project started in early 2015 and is now at its latest stage of testing the sensitivities of the model by carrying a series of various scenarios. DSC created a new model for this project called “Le Modèle interregional pour la France” which is based on DELTA and runs from 2010 to 2031.

Supporting the development of the Business Case for the A9 and A96 highway improvements

DSC have supported the development of the business cases for both the A9 and A96 highway improvements. This work has involved a series of land use forecasts, using TELMoS. The initial work, with TELMoS12 explored the wider economic impacts of the two schemes, firstly individually and secondly together. This showed the benefits to both the A9 and A96 corridors as well as to the areas to the north and west of Inverness. A further round of work has been commissioned that uses TELMoS14. This model has a finer zone disaggregation along the two transport corridors. Sensitivity tests have been undertaken looking at the impact of higher and lower levels of economic growth.

Trans-Pennine Tunnel Appraisal

DSC were commissioned, by the DfT to develop a land-use model for the North of England that could be used to appraise options for a Trans-Pennine Tunnel between Manchester and Sheffield and increased capacity in the M60 North West Quadrant (to the north west of Manchester). The model was a variant of DSC’s Shared National Model, with additional detail provided in and around the areas of study. The road improvements were represented as adjustments to the generalised costs. They were prepared by Atkins and based upon information supplied from the transport consultancies who were developing outline business cases for the two schemes. The economic impact of the two schemes was reported at both a local level and in terms of the impact across the North of England.

Northern Powerhouse Rail Appraisal

The North of England land use model has also been used to study the impact of the Northern Powerhouse Rail package of rail improvements. This work, for Transport for the North, modelled improved rail travel time between the key northern cities. The improved connectivity resulting from the infrastructure investment was forecast to lead to additional jobs in those cities that benefitted most from the rail improvements. Elsewhere there were lower levels of employment growth. This work was undertaken in conjunction with KPMG.

 

Modelling the impact of Northern Powerhouse Rail and HS2 Growth Strategies

This work was commissioned by Transport for Greater Manchester, and undertaken as sub-contractors for KPMG. It involved using the North of England land use model to appraise the combined impact of the Northern Powerhouse Rail infrastructure improvements, HS2 and the associated growth strategies for Manchester City Centre and Manchester International Airport. Information on the Growth Strategy’s planned residential and commercial development was provided by GVA Grimley as part of a separate project. The model was run to forecast the changes in employment, population and economic performance at both the City Region level, the constituent local authorities and also at the wider ‘North of England’ level.

Sheffield City Region

FLUTE (South Yorkshire model which Forecasts Land Use, Transport and the Economy) was developed by DSC in 2013 to serve as an appraisal tool for the Sheffield City Region Investment Fund (SCRIF). FLUTE was developed as a land-use/transport interaction (LUTI) model which integrated the South Yorkshire Strategic Transport Model (SYSTM+) with a DELTA-based land use model. The main objective of SCRIF was to expand the economy of the Sheffield City Region (SCR) area, the economy being measured in conventional terms of Gross Value Added (GVA). As part of the outputs from the model to assist in the prioritisation of the SCRIF schemes, a GVA functionality was designed and implemented that calculated the GVA benefits of the individual schemes or packages of schemes. The SCRIF schemes modelled included the conventional transport interventions and land use policies. During the development of SCRIF it was identified that schemes other than transport could contribute to GVA, therefore FLUTE needed to be capable of modelling non transport schemes that included one or more of the following:

  • domestic energy efficiency measures

  • high-speed internet

  • urban design and green infrastructure

  • energy generation/distribution

  • water capture/distribution

  • flood defences

  • sewerage

 

In 2014 the FLUTE model was updated to take account of recently published statistical material, including the 2011 Census Results, an updated assessment from the Local Planning Authorities of the future scale and distribution of planned development and also to match economic scenarios developed by an independent economic consultant. This version of the model known as FLUTE14 was primarily to provide a baseline for the technical work associated with the Infrastructure Investment Plan.

A1 Peterborough-M25

The A1 East of England Study was sponsored by the Department for Transport (DfT). The requirements were set in the first Road Investment Strategy (RIS) published in December 2014, which announced a programme of new Strategic Studies to explore options to address emerging issues and challenges. The DfT  commissioned Highways England to undertake the study on its behalf, which in turn commissioned Arup, AECOM and DSC to consider and produce the strategic outline business case for road improvement and connectivity using relevant data and site visits. DSC was commissioned by Arup to assess the land-use impacts of the various package scenarios of the A1 Study. DSC developed a LUMIT-type model which was a slightly modified version of DSC’s National Model for Great Britain in order to consider the following:

  • the changes in generalised costs of travel both within and beyond the Peterborough-M25 corridor;

  • both the more detailed effects within the corridor and possible effects further afield;

  • the “physical” land-use effects, and the “economic” effects.

This project ran for about six months in 2016.

Midlands Connect

DSC developed the Shared National Model (SNM) to provide an “off the peg” strategic land-use model made available to clients for individual model forecasts without any of the more typical upfront development costs associated with LUTI models. In late 2016, Atkins commissioned DSC to run a number of different SNM forecasts using variant transport and planning assumptions linked to Midlands Connect, a collaboration of local authorities, local enterprise partnerships, Network Rail, Highways England, central government and the business community. Updates to the SNM included a rebasing of the underlying regional economic model scenario to make it consistent with the assumptions made in the transport modelling work. Additionally, the specification of the SNM’s synthetic generalised costs were supplied to Atkins who, using their own transport models, produced a set of exogenous generalised costs changes approximating the impact of a number of major transport investments linked to Midlands Connect. These cost changes were input to the SNM and the resulting changes in accessibility created variations in demographic and economic growth and alternative spatial patterns of land-use. The model was also used to estimate WebTAG compliant static and dynamic wider economic impacts.

The land use implications of homeworking

As part of the LATIS Lot3 Commission, DSC prepared a series of forecasts for Scotland based upon a range of different assumptions on levels of economic and demographic growth. These showed the impact of different levels of change on the spatial pattern of growth across the country. In parallel with this, DSC also undertook an exercise that explored the impacts of increased levels of home ownership. It was assumed that a behavioural change of this nature would lessen the importance of access to employment opportunities as an influence on household location choice. Our modelling demonstrated that whilst there would be some dispersal of growth to areas away from the major employment centres, the general accessibility of the large cities would still act as an attraction to households and the level of population within these areas would continue to grow.

2010-15

 

Loughborough Inner Relief Road

In 2011 DSC worked with AECOM on the land use modelling, economic assessment, and regeneration assessment of the Loughborough Inner Relief Road which was used by Leicestershire County Council in preparing a successful business case for submission to the Department for Transport. The relief road is now open and involved the diversion of the A6, which previously passed directly through the centre of Loughborough, around the main shopping area, together with improvements to pedestrian and bus facilities in the town centre. DSC’s work on the economic assessment was centred on the calculation of wider economic impacts to feed into the cost/benefit analysis of the road. The wider economic impacts were calculated using the LLLITM model and the impacts of the relief road itself and the development associated with it were assessed separately. DSC also assessed the regeneration impact of the scheme by looking at two regeneration areas. The first was three Charnwood wards that were within the most deprived 20% of English wards in a ranking based upon the Index of Multiple Deprivation. Here the focus of our analysis was on the impact that the scheme had on the proportion of working age residents who were in employment. The second regeneration area was Loughborough town centre where the focus was upon the impact of the scheme on employment levels and on determining whether the new road had a positive effect in terms of supporting the creation of additional jobs.

Waitamata Harbour Crossing

In 2010 the Auckland Strategy Planning model (ASP) was used, together with the Auckland Regional Transport model (ART) to appraise the impact of an additional Waitemata harbour crossing (AWHC). The model was used to forecast the possible changes in where households, population and employment might locate with and without an AWHC, this in turn resulted in differing levels of demand for floorspace and take up of sites for development. The key findings from the application were that an additional harbour crossing would unlock areas earmarked for growth and the Auckland CBD would grow at a slower rate, but other targeted growth nodes benefited from the increased connectivity offered by the crossing. The land-use modelling showed that the southern end of the North Shore and West Auckland gain households and employment, and the reduction in Auckland’s density arising from the crossing was interpreted as allowing the benefits of agglomeration and connectivity to be experienced over a wider area. The modelling was also helpful in highlighting some of the behavioural responses to the bottlenecks at either end of the crossing as well as the need for a suite of complementary network upgrades to occur in order for an AWHC to provide substantial social net benefits and support desired land-use development trends.

Leicestershire Local Sustainable Transport Fund bid

In 2012 DSC used the LLITM model to look at the wider economic impacts and regeneration benefits associated with the smarter choices element of the Leicestershire Local Sustainable Transport Fund bid. Within the transport model, smarter choices were modelled as an increase in the generalised cost of car travel. It was therefore necessary to compare various runs of the wider economic impact calculations in order to assess just the decongestion impacts of smarter choices, rather than including any negative impact associated with the increased cost of car travel. This was the appropriate measure for appraisal, since the smarter choices intervention would not actually increase the generalised costs of car travel, but would seek to make people behave as if those costs had increased. In order to assess whether the smarter choices scheme had any regeneration benefits, we looked at the proportion of working age residents in employment in the LLITM zones comprising the Leicester Partnerships priority lower super output areas, the presumption being that if the scheme had a positive effect, and more people are in employment, then this would be beneficial to the wards in question and contribute to their regeneration.

South Hampshire Local Sustainable Transport Fund

This small project was undertaken in late 2011/early 2012 to appraise the impacts of a number of alternative types of transport investment as part of a bid for funding from the South Hampshire Local Sustainable Transport Fund (LSTF). The types of transport investment tested included changes to bus priorities and real time passenger information on various corridors in both Southampton and Portsmouth, a region wide “smartcard” (modelled as faster boarding and operation on buses) and finally some behavioural change included as mode shift from car to public transport. The schemes were included in transport model runs with the resulting variant generalised costs passed into the local economic impact model (LEIM), a DELTA package which has been operational since 2009 and covers large parts of southern Hampshire. The LEIM was used to forecast both the traditional LUTI impacts of transport investment of different resulting land-use patterns of households and employment, as well as the estimation of DfT type WebTAG agglomeration and labour market wider economic impacts. The model itself had some (at the time) progressive design elements, including a variable employment scenario which would respond to the relative performance of the region against a trend based forecast.

Clyde Valley Infrastructure Fund

DSC were commissioned in 2013 to support the Glasgow and Clyde Valley local authorities’ City Deal bid. Our involvement centred upon the use of modelling techniques to appraise a range of transport, land use and other infrastructure projects in order to gauge their impact upon the economy of the Glasgow and Clyde Valley region. The work made use of an updated version of the SITLUM land use and transport model. DSC were tasked with refreshing the model’s land use and economic component. This involved a refresh of the base year data, in order to capture some of the first results of the 2011 Census, capturing new information on planned development provided by the Strategic Development Planning Authority and updating the model’s economic and demographic scenarios so that they were consistent with those underpinning the Strategic Development Plan. Transport consultants, TRL, undertook a similar exercise to refresh SITLUM’s strategic transport model. The model was then used to appraise both individual schemes and packages of schemes. These included investment in road infrastructure, public transport enhancements, schemes that unlocked potential development sites, site clearance and decontamination, flood prevention schemes, public realm investment, proposals for an ocean liner terminal and a new waterway between Loch Lomond and the Clyde. Sites were ranked according to a calculation of their forecast impact upon the City Region’s economy relative to the initial investment. A package of schemes was then identified that was measured in terms of both impact upon the City Region and the individual local authorities within the City Region.

Sheffield City Region Infrastructure Fund

DSC were commissioned in 2012 to develop a version of the FLUTE land use model so that it could support the work of the emerging City Region Authority in prioritising infrastructure investment. The City Region had a long list of schemes that included transport-related schemes, regeneration schemes, the provision of new workspace, flood prevention schemes, investment in district heating and public realm enhancements. They were keen that these should all be assessed in a consistent manner. DSC undertook an initial scoping of investment options, identifying the range of schemes that could be represented within the FLUTE model. Separate work was carried out to develop a set of metrics for measuring packages of schemes. These measured the likely economic impact upon the City Region as well as the impact at local authority level and on some of the more deprived localities as measured by the Index of Multiple Deprivation. Some modifications were then made to the model to enable the range of infrastructure schemes to be appraised. The transport schemes were represented either in the SYSTM+ transport model (and run by AECOM) or as adjustments to the generalised costs files within the FLUTE model. Land Use and other infrastructure schemes were modelled within FLUTE.

The impact of both individual schemes and then packages of two or more schemes were then assessed in terms of their impact upon the City Region’s GVA.

Southampton Public Realm Improvements

This project sought to help quantify and build an evidence base for the contribution that the quality of the urban realm has on its population. The modelling work was completed in 2012 using the South Hampshire local economic impact model (LEIM). The types of urban realm improvements tested are often referred to as “soft” transport investments when compared to more typical schemes such as new roads or railway lines. The work built on previous studies by TfL/CABE looking at the willingness to pay higher house prices for perceived improvements in urban realm, a similar choice problem that DELTA represents in its location model, where changes in accessibility, rents or environment causes changes in the utility of living in a particular place. Changes in urban realm were estimated using a separate tool and converted into generalised cost time savings which were then input to the LEIM that was run to produce variant land-use forecasts. Of most interest were the changes in residential and commercial rental values resulting from increased demand to locate in the zones with the urban realm improvements.

The SESPLAN Cross Boundary Project

This project was a joint initiative between Transport Scotland and the local authorities within South-East Scotland, that was undertaken between 2014 and 2016.  It looked at the future growth across the region and the impact upon the strategic transport network. Part of the work was to develop a process by which developer contributions in one local authority area might fund transport investment in other parts of the Region. DSC worked with colleagues from SYSTRA and CH2M Hill on the project. DSC’s input related to three key stages. First of all to prepare new forecasts of land use change, population growth and employment change for the region. Secondly to create an interface between the TELMoS zone system and the more detailed modelling of the regional transport model so that the forecasts generated within TELMoS could be broken down to show rates of change at a finer geographical scale. Finally to run a series of scenario tests showing levels of growth with both committed development sites and separately with a combination of the sites that are currently committed and those that have been developed but that currently do not have planning permission.

Leicester and Leicestershire Integrated Transport Model (LLITM)

Between 2013 and 2016 the integrated land use and transport model was used to appraise the impacts, upon the County’s transport network, of several Core Strategies and Local Plan proposals. The Core Strategy appraisal involved the testing of combinations of sites allocated for residential and commercial use in Blaby, Harborough and North West Leicestershire. The work on specific schemes included appraisal of the Lubbesthorpe Sustainable Urban Extension (SUE), the Barwell West and Earl Shilton SUE, the North East of Leicester SUE and developments to both the north and south of Melton. These sites were identified for a mix of residential and commercial end use. We have modelled these applications in one of two ways. For some, the intention has been to look at the impact on the transport networks if the sites are fully built out. These sites have been treated, within the model as fully occupied additions to the residential and/or commercial stock. For others the model has been used to explore the demand for additional floorspace. The sites have been modelled as available for development. The model has then forecast the take-up of the sites based upon the demand and relative attractiveness of the location.

2005-10

Eddington Review and Wider Economic Impacts

The aim of this study was to look at the likely impacts of a range of transport interventions, with a view to helping to draw some broad conclusions as to which interventions given particular characteristics of the area are likely to provide an effective contribution to the economy. The focus of the testing programme was on the effectiveness of various transport interventions for generating the Wider Economic Benefits. Although the tests were purely illustrative, it was considered important that the tests were realistic in nature and capable of being implemented. A wide range of transport interventions were tested, examining:

  • infrastructure based interventions;

  • public transport fares and frequency changes;

  • behavioural change measures;

  • price based highway demand management;

  • tests of packages (excluding and then including price-based demand management).

Wider Economic Benefits of M62 Widening

This project is concerned with the appraisal of the widening of the M62 between Junctions 25 and 28, and for the construction of a tunnel serving the movement from the westbound M62 to the northbound M606 against the Economy Objective of the New Approach To Appraisal (NATA). The project covers both conventional economic appraisal and wider economic benefits calculated in line with the methodology published by the Department for Transport in summer 2005. MVA and David Simmonds Consultancy were commissioned by the Highways Agency to undertake this study.

2000-05

Strategic Environmental Assessment in the Trans-Pennine Corridor 

DSC worked closely with MVA and ERM on a project for Strategic Environmental Assessment in the Trans-Pennine Corridor, which spans Northern England from the Irish Sea to the North Sea and includes the Merseyside, Greater Manchester and South and West Yorkshire conurbations. The study used a DELTA/START land-use/transport model to forecast the impacts of a number of alternative strategies. At a policy-making level, the study involved a programme of consultation conferences to discuss objectives for the study area and to consider the implications of the forecasts, with significant use of GIS to elucidate the environmental impacts. In addition to its contribution to local strategy formulation, the study was also one of the European Commission’s pilot studies for the use of Strategic Environmental Assessment in relation to the Trans-European Networks. 

Socio-economic impacts of the Hamilton-Larkhall railway reopening (South Lanarkshire)

DSC carried out an assessment of the likely socio-economic impacts of proposals to reopen the railway between Hamilton and Larkhall (South Lanarkshire), with particular reference to the need to bring about economic regeneration in the town of Larkhall. The analysis contributed to the decision to proceed with the reopening, since completed.

Socio-economic impacts of the Ardrossan-Saltcoats-Steventon bypass (Ayrshire)

DSC carried out an assessment of the likely socio-economic impacts of proposals for a new by-pass to relieve traffic congestion and reduce accidents in the towns of Ardrossan, Saltcoats and Steventon on the Ayrshire coast. David Simmonds appeared as a witness for the scheme’s promoters at the Public Local Inquiry in 2006.

Socio-economic impacts of the Fochabers-Mosstodloch bypass (Moray)

DSC carried out an assessment of the likely socio-economic impacts of proposals for a new by-pass to relieve traffic congestion and reduce accidents in the villages of Fochabers and Mosstodloch (Moray). 

Impacts of alternative growth plans for Harlow

The purpose of the project was to undertake a transport study to test the feasibility of major population and employment growth in the Harlow area against the existing transport infrastructure, and to identify, cost and appraise sustainable and innovative transport solutions in the areas where deficiencies in the transport network are detected. DSC’s DELTA package was used to obtain land use and economic data as inputs to the MVA’s TRAM software. The DELTA application incorporated simple representations of household change over time (dealing with demographic effects and the relative mobility of different household types), location of incoming or mobile households within the available housing stock (new plus second-hand), location of jobs within the availability commercial floorspace stocks, and changes in residents’ employment status as a result of changing demands for labour (i.e. changing numbers of jobs). The model assumes that accessibilities do not change over time, except as a result of changes in car ownership. The project was carried out in 2004-2005 for Harlow Council by a consortium of MVA and DSC. 

Appraisal of the Bathgate - Airdrie railway reopening

DSC carried out an assessment of the likely socio-economic impacts of proposals to reopen the railway between Airdrie (North Lanarkshire) and Bathgate (West Lothian), and thus to provide an additional through railway route between Glasgow and Edinburgh. The assessment, which was one of the first applications of TELMoS, contributed to the decision to reopen the line.

1994-99

Borders Railway Reopening Study

DSC worked with MVA as sub-consultants to Scott Wilson on the economic impacts of reopening the Borders Railway (1999-2000).  This analysis formed part of a major study into the feasibility of reopening one or more parts, or all, of the former Waverley Route from Edinburgh to Carlisle via Galashiels and Hawick. The conclusions regarding the likely impact on jobs and households contributed to the eventual decision to proceed with the reopening of the northern part of the line from Edinburgh to Galashiels and Tweedbank.

Transport consequences of more compact cities

The objective of this study was to examine the transport implications of various versions for the “Compact City” concept, which had been widely discussed in recent years. To do this DCS, in collaboration with MVA and ITS, carried out a series of tests using MVA’s START model of the Bristol area. Ten tests were carried out, focusing on the future “compact” city achieved by reversing past trends of decentralisation. In general, the results showed that even this major reversal of past tendencies would have only a small impact on transport demand or on car use. The study, which was carried out for the UK Department of Transport, during 1995-96, was the subject of an article in Traffic Engineering & Control, December 1997, and of a paper in a book edited at Oxford Brooks University on the issues of planning for sustainable cities.

1990-94

Alsace

DSC carried out a major review of the impacts of transport upon the environment and economy of Alsace, as a contribution to a project led by HCG France for the Conseil Régional d’Alsace and other organizations in the region. The study also involved the development of a large-scale transport model of Alsace, for which DSC helped to develop planning scenarios and applied DSCMOD to examine the development impacts of alternative transport strategies. The study was carried out over the period 1992-94, and was subsequently summarised in a paper presented to the European Transport Conference.

Merseyside

In 1992, DSC worked with MVA and Pieda to prepare land-use scenarios for the Merseyside Integrated Transport Study (MERITS), and to assess the impact of alternative transport strategies on the prospects for urban regeneration (using the DSCMOD model). The study also involved some consideration of the impact of long-distance transport links on the Merseyside economy, using the DSC European model. The conclusions of MERITS provided the basis for subsequent package bids by the Merseyside transport authorities. 

In 1996-97, DSC managed a joint project with MVA for Merseytravel, which reviewed the role of public transport in promoting social and economic regeneration. This study developed a framework for consideration of public transport impacts in terms of direct effects, the scope for linked initiatives (targeting particular groups or sites), area impacts due to accessibility changes and macro-level impacts on the conurbation as a whole. This framework was illustrated through a number of case studies. The analysis was summarised in a paper presented to the European Transport Conference. 

Edinburgh JATES

As part of the JATES project in Edinburgh (1990-91), DSC developed a system of “land-use change indicators” designed to provide limited information on the land-use impacts of alternative strategies within the constraints of a conventional transport study approach – in particular, by applying a static model in a “horizon year”, rather than requiring a series of years to be modelled. The initial application was linked to the START model implemented by MVA within the JATES project.

Northern Ireland Railway schemes

During 1991-92, DSC prepared a series of impact forecasts in relation to schemes for improvement of the railway network in Northern Ireland. These studies provided essential demand, revenue and benefit inputs to appraisal carried out by TecnEcon with a view to European funding. The schemes included:

  • the Belfast Cross-harbour Rail Link (subsequently approved; opened in 1994);

  • proposals for a new station on the Link ,at Donegall Quay;

  • reopening of the Antrim–Bleach Green Line;

  • improvement (to remedy the consequences of inadequate maintenance) of the Belfast-Larne and Belfast-Dublin routes.

In 1997, DSC contributed to projects led by ERM Economics involving post-project evaluation of the Cross-harbour Rail Link project and further work on the Antrim – Bleach Green reopening (since completed).